The IEA’s November report points to recovering supply and a projected fourth-quarter surplus. Shipping risks and weak demand remain part of the picture.
What does the latest IEA report say?
The International Energy Agency says the global oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with its November supply-and-demand assessment pointing to a return to surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026. The report was published on 13 November. [1]
That is the agency’s assessment and forecast, not a guarantee about future oil prices. The IEA also warns that attacks on shipping continue to threaten the maritime security needed for a sustained supply recovery. [1]
How quickly has supply recovered?
Global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.4 million barrels per day, following a 3 million-barrel-per-day increase in September, according to the IEA. The agency links the rise to recovering Gulf exports despite continuing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers. [1]
The recovery is incomplete. Gulf oil exports excluding Oman reached 18.4 million barrels per day in October, still 26% below their pre-war level, the report says. Higher recent flows and remaining disruption can therefore both be true. [1]
What is happening to demand and inventories?
The IEA forecasts that world oil demand will fall by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026 to an annual average of 102.3 million barrels per day, before rebounding by 2 million barrels per day in 2027. These are forecasts for annual averages, not October production figures or an assurance of a particular outcome. [1]
Observed inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October. But the IEA says much of the increase was oil on the water, while on-land stocks continued to decline. A headline about rising inventories should not obscure that difference. [1]
Does a surplus mean fuel prices must fall?
The report says North Sea Dated crude prices had dropped sharply from their early-October peak by the time it was written. It also notes that European diesel prices remained well above pre-war levels. Crude prices, refined fuel prices, freight costs and local retail prices are not interchangeable measures. [1]
For readers, the main change is a less tight global supply picture, accompanied by unresolved risks. The IEA’s forecast may change if shipping conditions, production or demand develops differently. It should not be read as personal investment advice or a promise about the next petrol bill.
Sources checked 14 November 2026
- International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, 13 November 2026 https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2026
Cover: AI-generated editorial illustration, not an event photograph or scientific observation.
